What if Title-insurance and brokerage disruption compresses transaction fees?
AI and regulatory pressure on agent commissions and title costs lower the friction of home transactions, supporting volumes but compressing fee pools; the disruption re-rates brokerage and title-insurance incumbents lower.
20%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 20%· 90% range 10–29%· 40 analogues · measured class risk_off 100% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — risk_off ≈7.4009/yr → 100% in 18 mo100%
Analyst prior · editorial share 20% of the class20%
Pooled · weight 87%20%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)20%
Published20%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. AI and regulatory pressure on agent commissions and title costs lower the friction of home transactions, supporting volumes but compressing fee pools; the disruption re-rates brokerage and title-insurance incumbents lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
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