What if a global financial stress event collapses TOPIX by 51% and devastates life-insurer buffers?
A 51% TOPIX collapse in a global financial-stress event devastates banks' strategic shareholdings, life-insurer equity buffers and household risk assets, with the wealth shock feeding back into a domestic demand contraction.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A 51% TOPIX collapse in a global financial-stress event devastates banks' strategic shareholdings, life-insurer equity buffers and household risk assets, with the wealth shock feeding back into a domestic demand contraction. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -9.51–+3.94% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.53–-0.53% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.6% hist -8.09–+5.44% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.57–+0.11% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -7.86–+4.36% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.08–+3.23% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.12–+0.18% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.43–+0.11% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.22–+0.72% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -10.43–+10.68% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.55–-0.27% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.05–+1.15% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.7–+0.77% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 15 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 78% | 13 | 0.50 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -7.2% | 100% | 3 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -6.6% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 68% | 9 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.2% · 5d +5.6% | 67% | 3 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.2% | 68% | 15 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d +12.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 15 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 15 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +1.1% | 61% | 15 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.7% | 61% | 15 | 0.17 | · |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 15 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 15 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 15 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |