What if Tunisia cannot fund its July eurobond and defaults?
Tunisia failing to fund its EUR750m 15-July maturity from thin reserves triggers a disorderly eurobond restructuring — a small, imminent frontier default with negligible global read. Rhymes with Sri Lanka's 2022 hard default among IMF-program holdouts. The EU and Gulf/Algeria are Tunisia's backstop funders; the novel angle is President Saied's rejection of IMF conditionality, which removes the usual rescue path and makes a messy, unilateral restructuring more likely than an orderly one.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Imminent horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tunis fails to fund its EUR750m 15-July-2026 maturity from thin reserves, triggering default and disorderly eurobond restructuring. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.