What if Turkey's lira-deposit unwind drains the central bank's reserves?
A faster KKM run-off into FX drains CBRT reserves and pressures TURKGB — a lira/reserves story, not a global Treasury or gold move. The cascade's DXY-up/gold-down framing is a poor fit; this is Turkey-internal. Rhymes with the 2022-23 reserve burn under FX-protected deposits. Turkey relies on Gulf swap lines and carry inflows to refill reserves; the forward risk is the deliberate KKM unwind concentrates the drain into a narrow window.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The final KKM balance run-off accelerates into FX, draining central-bank reserves faster than expected and pressuring TURKGB bonds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.