What if Turkey restarts rate cuts with inflation near 30%?
CBRT resuming cuts from 37% with inflation near 30% is unorthodox easing that triggers a fresh lira slide and dollarization — a domestic-Turkey event, so the trade is short TRY and long Turkish hard assets, with negligible US-curve transmission; the supplied gold/Treasury cascade is the wrong channel. Direct rhyme is the 2021 Erdogan-forced cuts that cratered the lira and spiked local gold/FX demand. Forward: each premature pivot deepens dollarization, making the next defense costlier.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. CBRT abandons its hold and resumes cutting from 37% with inflation near 30%, triggering a fresh lira slide and dollarization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.61–+1.01% · other way -3.44% (n=10) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.0–+0.75% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.88–+0.18% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–-0.33% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.99–+0.84% · other way -5.52% (n=7) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.81% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.66–-0.01% · other way +0.03% (n=8) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.85–+0.95% · other way +16.76% (n=2) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.83–+1.11% · other way -1.22% (n=2) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.87–+0.09% · other way -1.16% (n=8) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.83–+0.12% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +-0.0–+0.47% · other way -0.21% (n=10) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.66–+3.05% · other way -1.47% (n=2) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on MSTR: its +18% realized is regime-contaminated — the +122% Feb-2024 analogue is a BTC structural bull print, not a lira-easing signal; that channel reaches MSTR only second-order.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -10.9% | 86% | 7 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 29 | 0.08 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +2.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 23 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 43% | 30 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
CBRT serially abandons holds; resumed cutting from 37% with high inflation is its base-rate behavior. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.