What if Turkey restarts rate cuts with inflation near 30%?
CBRT resuming cuts from 37% with inflation near 30% is unorthodox easing that triggers a fresh lira slide and dollarization — a domestic-Turkey event, so the trade is short TRY and long Turkish hard assets, with negligible US-curve transmission; the supplied gold/Treasury cascade is the wrong channel. Direct rhyme is the 2021 Erdogan-forced cuts that cratered the lira and spiked local gold/FX demand. Forward: each premature pivot deepens dollarization, making the next defense costlier.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. CBRT abandons its hold and resumes cutting from 37% with inflation near 30%, triggering a fresh lira slide and dollarization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.