What if USDT and USDC depeg simultaneously and trigger a combined T-bill fire sale?
USDT and USDC depeg simultaneously in a crypto-wide risk-off, combining ~$50bn of redemptions and a disorderly T-bill fire-sale that the FSB warned could transmit crypto stress into core funding markets.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. USDT and USDC depeg simultaneously in a crypto-wide risk-off, combining ~$50bn of redemptions and a disorderly T-bill fire-sale that the FSB warned could transmit crypto stress into core funding markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.