What if insurers retreat and uninsurable zones collapse in value?
Insurer retreat from climate-exposed zones collapses regional property values through the credit channel: uninsurable homes lose financeability, impairing local mortgage/HY collateral, with a minor food-CPI tag from related ag disruption. Rhymes with the 2022-25 Florida/California insurer exits (FAIR plan strain, carriers pulling capacity). Forward angle: this is a localized, balance-sheet-slow repricing, not a 2008-style cascade; the trade is regional, in coastal-exposed RMBS/munis and property-insurer equity.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Insurers retreat from climate-exposed zones, collapsing regional property values. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.