What if a universal flu vaccine clears its final trial?
A universal flu vaccine is a pharma franchise-reshuffle story (winners vs Sanofi/GSK/CSL flu books), not a broad robotics-productivity bid; the GPU/Tesla cascade is mis-mapped. Closest analogue is the GLP-1 obesity re-rating of 2023, which lifted the innovator and crushed legacy-franchise incumbents rather than the Nasdaq. Forward angle: payers capture most savings, so the equity move is concentrated, not index-level.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. mRNA universal influenza vaccine clears phase 3, threatening the annual flu-shot franchise and reshaping seasonal-vaccine revenue. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.