What if US homebuilder labor crunch from deportations stalls housing starts?
Removal of undocumented construction crews collapses framing and finishing capacity, lifting build costs and stalling housing starts; builder equities fall as completion timelines blow out and shelter inflation re-accelerates.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Removal of undocumented construction crews collapses framing and finishing capacity, lifting build costs and stalling housing starts; builder equities fall as completion timelines blow out and shelter inflation re-accelerates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.