What if US mass-deportation supply shock: stagflationary GDP hit?
A large-scale deportation drive removes millions of workers from construction, agriculture and hospitality, cutting output while pushing wages and goods prices up; equities de-rate as a stagflationary growth-minus, prices-plus mix hits margins.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large-scale deportation drive removes millions of workers from construction, agriculture and hospitality, cutting output while pushing wages and goods prices up; equities de-rate as a stagflationary growth-minus, prices-plus mix hits margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.