What if US mass-deportation supply shock: stagflationary GDP hit?
A large-scale deportation drive removes millions of workers from construction, agriculture and hospitality, cutting output while pushing wages and goods prices up; equities de-rate as a stagflationary growth-minus, prices-plus mix hits margins.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large-scale deportation drive removes millions of workers from construction, agriculture and hospitality, cutting output while pushing wages and goods prices up; equities de-rate as a stagflationary growth-minus, prices-plus mix hits margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.13–-0.23% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.92–+1.28% · other way -8.46% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.17–+0.29% · other way +27.71% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.59–+1.35% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.59–-0.06% · other way +5.06% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–-0.29% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.34–+0.59% · other way +2.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.17–+3.58% · other way -3.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–+1.82% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.08–+0.17% · other way +17.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–+0.26% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.11% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.88–+10.87% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.3% | 76% | 32 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.8% | 74% | 35 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.0% | 74% | 26 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.7% | 70% | 35 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 32 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.7% | 63% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -6.6% | 58% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |