What if a prolonged US shutdown plus debt-ceiling brinkmanship distorts the T-bill curve?
A prolonged US government shutdown plus debt-ceiling brinkmanship distorts the T-bill curve and raises near-term default-risk pricing.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A prolonged US government shutdown plus debt-ceiling brinkmanship distorts the T-bill curve and raises near-term default-risk pricing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.08–+1.86% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.51–+0.7% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.86–+1.29% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.25% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.16% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.62–-0.05% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.14–+2.43% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.53–+0.64% · other way -0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -7.99–+5.11% · other way +8.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–+0.33% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.67–+3.81% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.04–+0.34% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -9.45–+7.13% · other way +9.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -13.86–+4.67% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.6% · 5d -9.8% | 100% | 7 | 0.60 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.9% | 63% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +7.2% | 62% | 7 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -3bp | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +5.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 14 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |