What if Washington declares a youth mental-health emergency?
A federal youth mental-health emergency is a fiscal-spend rotation into telehealth, school clinics and digital therapeutics (Teladoc-type, Hims-adjacent) — a healthcare-services bid, not an automation-displacement macro drag; the labor-surplus framing is mis-mapped. Rhymes with the 2020-21 telehealth boom that lifted the vertical without an index signal. Net macro impact is roughly neutral; the move is a within-healthcare reallocation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Federal youth mental-health emergency drives telehealth, school-clinic, and digital-therapeutics spending surge and labor-productivity concern. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move |
|---|
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.1% | 71% | 23 | 0.34 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 24 | 0.23 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 22 | 0.22 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +0bp | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 50% | 21 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Youth mental-health emergency declaration on-trend; spending surge already building, plausible within 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.