What if Washington declares a youth mental-health emergency?
A federal youth mental-health emergency is a fiscal-spend rotation into telehealth, school clinics and digital therapeutics (Teladoc-type, Hims-adjacent) — a healthcare-services bid, not an automation-displacement macro drag; the labor-surplus framing is mis-mapped. Rhymes with the 2020-21 telehealth boom that lifted the vertical without an index signal. Net macro impact is roughly neutral; the move is a within-healthcare reallocation.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Federal youth mental-health emergency drives telehealth, school-clinic, and digital-therapeutics spending surge and labor-productivity concern. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.