What if a youth-unemployment crisis ignites political upheaval worldwide?
A youth-unemployment crisis driven by automation displacement is a slow risk-off/credit story: AI-driven job losses widen consumer credit, dent spending and pressure high-beta risk. The provided AI-capex analogues (DeepSeek, Nvidia) fit the displacement trigger better than a market-crash rhyme; the social-unrest channel echoes 2011 MENA/Arab Spring. Forward angle: this is a multi-year political-risk premium, not a datable shock, expressed best in consumer credit and EM political risk, not a clean index short.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A youth-unemployment crisis sparks political upheaval across several regions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.