What if Zambia royalty-regime change spooks copper investors?
An abrupt mining-tax change unsettles investors, slowing copper investment and exports and pressuring the kwacha.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An abrupt mining-tax change unsettles investors, slowing copper investment and exports and pressuring the kwacha. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Copper ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.22–+1.38% · other way -9.89% (n=8) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.33–+0.8% · other way +8.79% (n=11) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.12% · other way -0.2% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.72–+0.51% · other way +0.37% (n=11) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–-0.09% · other way -0.05% (n=10) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.29–+0.35% · other way +16.26% (n=11) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -10.27–+1.3% · other way +1.7% (n=8) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–-0.05% · other way +2.32% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.7–+6.97% · other way -5.53% (n=11) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.03% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.23–+0.85% · other way +5.18% (n=8) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–+0.21% · other way +3.4% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.16–+0.32% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.8% | 74% | 33 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.9% | 75% | 28 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.5% | 72% | 28 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 33 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 69% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |