What if Zohr decline turns Egypt into a costly LNG importer?
Falling output from the Zohr gas field flips Egypt from exporter to importer, forcing expensive spot-LNG and diesel purchases that drain dollars and reignite power shortages.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Falling output from the Zohr gas field flips Egypt from exporter to importer, forcing expensive spot-LNG and diesel purchases that drain dollars and reignite power shortages. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.22–+6.96% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.43–+0.81% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–-0.17% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.28% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.21–+1.6% · other way +12.35% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.86–+0.13% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–+0.43% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–-0.06% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.01–+2.91% · other way -6.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.47% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.81–+2.54% · other way +7.67% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.32–+0.06% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.86–+6.27% · other way +25.88% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.1% | 67% | 27 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.4% | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +4.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 27 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.1% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 46% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |