Lebanon — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Lebanon and its globally‑connected markets.
20 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
37%0–6 months
What if Lebanon's depositor recovery law stalls in parliament?
27%0–6 months
What if a renewed Gaza war spills across the region?
27%0–6 months
What if the Lebanon ceasefire collapses and Israel bombs Beirut?
23%0–6 months
What if Lebanon's parallel rate re-collapses past 120,000?
18%6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
18%6–18 months
What if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
16%0–6 months
What if Hezbollah rejects disarmament, north reignites?
16%6–18 months
What if Lebanon collapse deepens with no reform or financing?
16%1–3 years
What if Lebanon reform breakthrough unlocks recovery financing (good)?
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%1–3 years
What if Lebanon disarmament unlocks reconstruction aid?
14%1–3 years
What if Lebanon IMF deal stabilizes a dollarized economy?
13%0–6 months
What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?
13%1–3 years
What if Lebanon restructuring unlocks frozen deposits?
12%6–18 months
What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?
12%1–3 years
What if Lebanon collapses into a stateless failed state?
12%6–18 months
What if Syria chaos triggers a new refugee wave?
10%6–18 months
What if Lebanon hyperinflation forces full dollarization?
9%0–6 months
What if Hezbollah opens a full northern front on Israel?