What if Lebanon collapses into a stateless failed state?
Total Lebanese state collapse with militias seizing ports is a humanitarian and regional-stability event with near-zero direct market footprint — VIX +7.5, modest equity softening, no oil channel. Analogue: Lebanon's own 2019-2021 financial implosion, which devastated the country but did not register in global risk assets. The honest read is this is not an investable macro shock; it only matters to markets if it becomes the trigger for a wider Israel-Hezbollah war.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Total economic and institutional collapse leaves Lebanon stateless, with Hezbollah and rival militias seizing ports and borders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.