What if Lebanon's parallel rate re-collapses past 120,000?
A failed reform package re-collapsing Lebanon's parallel rate past 120k reignites dollarization panic and lifts imported inflation — a fully local, already-defaulted-sovereign event with no global read. Rhymes with Lebanon's own 2021-23 currency implosion (past 100k) after the 2020 eurobond default. Gulf and diaspora inflows are the only support, long withdrawn; the forward angle is that with the sovereign already in default, the lira's path is pure domestic monetary collapse, not a marketable credit trade.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed reform package and reserve depletion re-collapse Lebanon's parallel rate past 120,000/USD, reigniting dollarization panic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.