What if Lebanon's parallel rate re-collapses past 120,000?
A failed reform package re-collapsing Lebanon's parallel rate past 120k reignites dollarization panic and lifts imported inflation — a fully local, already-defaulted-sovereign event with no global read. Rhymes with Lebanon's own 2021-23 currency implosion (past 100k) after the 2020 eurobond default. Gulf and diaspora inflows are the only support, long withdrawn; the forward angle is that with the sovereign already in default, the lira's path is pure domestic monetary collapse, not a marketable credit trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed reform package and reserve depletion re-collapse Lebanon's parallel rate past 120,000/USD, reigniting dollarization panic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.11–+0.77% · other way +33.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–-0.06% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–-0.11% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.5–+0.53% · other way +7.7% (n=11) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.57–+0.38% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.49–+0.5% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.02–+4.45% · other way -5.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.15% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.45–+-0.0% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.51–+4.34% · other way +24.19% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -3.71–+3.79% · other way -1.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -6.75–+5.1% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.97–+3.08% · other way -2.3% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.06% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR/NDX: the +7%/+1.5% reads lean on 2023 bank-panic windows when BTC was ripping; a Lebanon lira collapse is a non-channel for US tech, so history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +4.4% | 65% | 14 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 32 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.9% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 16 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -9.1% | 55% | 14 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 15 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Lebanon parallel rate volatile under stalled reform; re-collapse past 120k plausible but stabilization has held. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.