What if a renewed Gaza war spills across the region?
A Gaza war pulling in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon is mostly a vol/risk-appetite event with a thin oil leg -- the +12.6% VIX dwarfs the +3% Brent, correctly, since no Gulf barrels are at risk unless Hormuz is touched. Rhymes with October 2023, when the initial shock spiked oil ~4% then fully round-tripped within weeks as supply stayed intact. Transmission: Egypt (Suez, gas), Jordan and Lebanon are the fragile fiscal links; Gulf capital sentiment matters more than crude. Forward: fade the oil spike unless Iran/Hormuz is directly drawn in.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed full-scale Gaza war ignites West Bank uprising and cross-border attacks, dragging in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.