What if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?
A negotiated disarmament of Hezbollah under a reconstituted Lebanese state removes Israel's northern threat, sharply lowering the regional war premium and lifting risk assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A negotiated disarmament of Hezbollah under a reconstituted Lebanese state removes Israel's northern threat, sharply lowering the regional war premium and lifting risk assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -7.9% hist -4.82–-2.15% · other way -2.29% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +3.1% hist +1.1–+2.1% · other way +0.16% (n=10) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist +0.58–+2.03% · other way -0.12% (n=9) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.06–+2.31% · other way -3.81% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -4.77–+9.98% · other way -5.83% (n=9) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.69–+1.38% · other way -1.35% (n=9) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.21–+1.66% · other way -1.9% (n=5) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.59–+2.0% · other way -0.68% (n=9) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.07–-0.16% · other way +2.19% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.04–+1.37% · other way -3.92% (n=7) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.46–+0.96% · other way -2.54% (n=8) |
| 13 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.99–-0.11% · other way +6.6% (n=10) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.02–+1.07% · other way -9.03% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +15.1% · 5d +5.5% | 88% | 8 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.7% | 83% | 12 | 0.52 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 83% | 12 | 0.49 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 75% | 12 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.9% | 75% | 12 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 75% | 12 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 75% | 12 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.0% | 73% | 11 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.4% | 67% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |