North Korea — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning North Korea and its globally‑connected markets.
29 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
31%1–3 years
What if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?
29%1–3 years
What if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?
26%6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a nuke and fires over Japan?
22%1–3 years
What if Inter-Korean military hotline and DMZ de-mining resume?
20%1–3 years
What if North Korea backchannel freeze quietly removes the Korea discount?
19%1–3 years
What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
18%1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim deal trades USFK posture for an ICBM freeze?
17%6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%3–10 years
What if Verified North Korea denuclearization roadmap lifts all of Asia?
17%3–10 years
What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?
15%1–3 years
What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
14%0–6 months
What if North Korea conducts 7th nuclear test, its largest yield yet?
12%6–18 months
What if Hwasong-19 ICBM survives re-entry, ranging all of the US?
10%6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a tactical nuke for short-range missiles?
10%1–3 years
What if North Korea demonstrates a MIRV warhead bus on its ICBM?
10%6–18 months
What if North Korean artillery hits a South Korean border island?
10%0–6 months
What if North Korea GPS-jams South Korean airspace and shipping?
9%1–3 years
What if North Korea agrees to phased denuclearisation?
9%0–6 months
What if Peninsula war scare disrupts Samsung/SK Hynix memory output?
9%1–3 years
What if Simultaneous Taiwan + Korea crises overwhelm US bandwidth?
9%0–6 months
What if North Korea ICBM overflies Japan, triggering J-Alert sirens?
8%1–3 years
What if North Korea high-altitude nuclear test over the Pacific?
8%1–3 years
What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?
7%1–3 years
What if North Korea shells Seoul's suburbs?
7%0–6 months
What if North Korea satellite launch doubles as an ICBM provocation?
6%0–6 months
What if North Korea sinks a South Korean patrol boat in the West Sea?
5%Tail risk
What if North Korea detonates a nuclear EMP over South Korea's grid?