North Korea — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning North Korea and its globally‑connected markets.
29 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
31%1–3 years
What if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?
29%1–3 years
What if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?
26%6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a nuke and fires over Japan?
22%1–3 years
What if Inter-Korean military hotline and DMZ de-mining resume?
22%1–3 years
What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
20%1–3 years
What if North Korea backchannel freeze quietly removes the Korea discount?
18%1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim deal trades USFK posture for an ICBM freeze?
17%3–10 years
What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?
17%6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%3–10 years
What if Verified North Korea denuclearization roadmap lifts all of Asia?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%1–3 years
What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?
14%0–6 months
What if North Korea conducts 7th nuclear test, its largest yield yet?
12%6–18 months
What if Hwasong-19 ICBM survives re-entry, ranging all of the US?
10%1–3 years
What if North Korea demonstrates a MIRV warhead bus on its ICBM?
10%0–6 months
What if North Korea GPS-jams South Korean airspace and shipping?
10%6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a tactical nuke for short-range missiles?
10%6–18 months
What if North Korean artillery hits a South Korean border island?
9%1–3 years
What if North Korea agrees to phased denuclearisation?
9%0–6 months
What if North Korea ICBM overflies Japan, triggering J-Alert sirens?
9%0–6 months
What if Peninsula war scare disrupts Samsung/SK Hynix memory output?
9%1–3 years
What if Simultaneous Taiwan + Korea crises overwhelm US bandwidth?
8%1–3 years
What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?
8%1–3 years
What if North Korea high-altitude nuclear test over the Pacific?
7%1–3 years
What if North Korea shells Seoul's suburbs?
7%0–6 months
What if North Korea satellite launch doubles as an ICBM provocation?
6%0–6 months
What if North Korea sinks a South Korean patrol boat in the West Sea?
5%Tail risk
What if North Korea detonates a nuclear EMP over South Korea's grid?