What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow formalize security cooperation, hardening a revisionist Asia-Pacific axis; regional geopolitical risk and defense spend rise, allied-market risk appetite cools.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow formalize security cooperation, hardening a revisionist Asia-Pacific axis; regional geopolitical risk and defense spend rise, allied-market risk appetite cools. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.4% hist +2.05–+5.36% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.91–-0.67% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.39–-0.25% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.57–-0.22% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.01–-0.05% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 6 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.15–+1.5% · other way -3.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.84–+1.91% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.27–-0.27% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.04–+1.68% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 10 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.54–+0.76% · other way -4.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.19–+1.42% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.16–+1.48% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.67–-0.3% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.9% · 5d +6.2% | 78% | 12 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 29 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -4.0% | 64% | 21 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 37 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 31 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |