What if North Korea agrees to phased denuclearisation?
Small, slow risk-on: phased DPRK denuclearization shaves the geopolitical safe-haven bid — gold -0.7%, VIX -6, a mild Nasdaq lift. No durable market analogue — the 2018 Singapore/Hanoi summits produced fleeting Kospi relief that faded when talks collapsed. Transmission: the cleanest local expression is Korean equities/won and reduced regional hedging demand; forward angle — multi-year, reversible, and historically prone to breakdown, so this is a slow-bleed gold-negative theme at best, not a tradable catalyst — size it as a tail-premium fade, nothing more.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. North Korea agrees to phased denuclearization in exchange for security guarantees. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.