What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
Pyongyang halts long-range and nuclear tests in a phased deal, removing an overhang on Korean assets; KRW firms, KOSPI rerates higher, defense premium drains and VIX eases.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Pyongyang halts long-range and nuclear tests in a phased deal, removing an overhang on Korean assets; KRW firms, KOSPI rerates higher, defense premium drains and VIX eases. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Defense spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -6.6% hist -3.93–+0.13% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.7% hist +0.94–+1.8% |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.35–+1.48% |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.49–+0.96% |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.4–+0.98% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.42–+0.96% |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.35–+1.13% |
| 8 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.87–+0.03% |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.7–-0.12% |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -6.64–+1.88% |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.47–+1.45% |
| 13 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.61–+0.16% |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–-0.02% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -0.1% | 72% | 34 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -3.6% | 68% | 27 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.2% | 66% | 39 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +3.0% | 64% | 18 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.9% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |