What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?
A multilateral understanding keeps South Korea, Japan and others non-nuclear amid North Korea's arsenal, averting a cascade; regional geopolitical risk eases, allied risk appetite improves, gold's bid softens.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A multilateral understanding keeps South Korea, Japan and others non-nuclear amid North Korea's arsenal, averting a cascade; regional geopolitical risk eases, allied risk appetite improves, gold's bid softens. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Defense spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.