What if North Korea tests a nuke and fires over Japan?
A 7th DPRK test plus an overflight of Japan is a contained-shock: VIX +9, a shallow Nasdaq/semis dip, no oil channel. Rhymes with the 2017 Hwasong cycle and Aug-2017 'fire and fury' — Kospi/Nikkei wobbled then recovered within days as no kinetic exchange followed. Forward angle: the market has been desensitized by repetition, so the half-life of this dip is measured in hours; the only durable tail is a Japanese supply-chain scare, which this scenario doesn't trigger.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. North Korea conducts a 7th nuclear test and fires a missile over Japan. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.