Switzerland — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Switzerland and its globally‑connected markets.
68 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
52%1–3 years
What if CFA franc reform deal calms West African markets?
50%1–3 years
What if DRC franc stabilizes on mining-revenue surge?
38%1–3 years
What if AES quits CFA franc, West African FX splits?
33%6–18 months
What if Sahel instability drains CFA-zone reserves?
29%6–18 months
What if Congo grabs higher cobalt royalties from miners?
27%0–6 months
What if the SNB sells reserves to weaken a soaring franc?
26%6–18 months
What if AES common currency launch sparks capital flight?
25%6–18 months
What if SNB cuts to zero and resumes FX sales to cap franc strength?
23%6–18 months
What if Mali ditches French CFA reserves for gold-backed plan?
23%6–18 months
What if SNB and BoJ FX intervention reshapes haven flows?
22%1–3 years
What if Swiss deflation drags the SNB back to negative rates?
22%6–18 months
What if Polish CHF-mortgage payouts squeeze bank capital?
22%6–18 months
What if Section 232 pharma tariffs hit Irish/Swiss-made US drug imports?
19%1–3 years
What if the Swiss National Bank returns to negative rates?
18%1–3 years
What if Swiss too-big-to-fail reform forces UBS to hold $20-24 billion of extra capital?
18%1–3 years
What if Swiss-refinery bottleneck distorts global gold bar flows?
16%0–6 months
What if SNB intervention to weaken the franc fails as haven flows surge?
13%0–6 months
What if euro-area stress pushes EUR/CHF toward parity and forces heavy SNB intervention?
13%6–18 months
What if a euro-area recession and periphery spread blowout spills into Switzerland through trade and banking?
12%6–18 months
What if Swiss-franc mortgage court rulings force large legal provisions at Polish banks?
12%0–6 months
What if a global risk-off wave drives a sharp safe-haven surge in the Swiss franc?
11%1–3 years
What if higher Swiss mortgage rates erode affordability in an already overvalued housing market?
10%1–3 years
What if Swiss commercial property falls up to 36% as yields normalize?
10%1–3 years
What if Swiss equities fall about 46% in a severe global risk-off scenario?
10%1–3 years
What if Credit Suisse integration costs overshoot just as FINMA tightens UBS capital requirements?
10%6–18 months
What if the SNB cuts policy rates back below zero to counter franc strength?
10%1–3 years
What if Canada, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland deleverage their housing debt together?
9%1–3 years
What if Swiss office and investment-property values reprice as the SNB era ends?
9%1–3 years
What if Swiss residential property falls roughly 31% as ultra-low yields reverse?
9%1–3 years
What if Swiss commercial real estate drops about 36% as cap rates reprice sharply?
9%1–3 years
What if a surging franc inflicts large valuation losses on the SNB's foreign-exchange-heavy balance sheet?
9%6–18 months
What if a strong franc and weak euro-area demand push Swiss exporters into margin compression?
9%3–10 years
What if accelerating glacier loss and warming undermine Swiss alpine tourism and hydropower?
9%6–18 months
What if one dealer is too slow to close out a defaulting family office's swaps?
8%6–18 months
What if a concentrated total-return-swap book detonates on a stock reversal as with Archegos?
8%1–3 years
What if an IMF-FSAP adverse scenario drives Swiss bank CET1 capital from 17% to below 11%?
8%0–6 months
What if a franc spike strains Swiss banks' large foreign-currency balance sheets?
8%1–3 years
What if rising financing costs trigger a disorderly correction in Swiss residential-investment valuations?
8%1–3 years
What if an oil-and-gas price collapse splits the Nordic economies and strains bank books differently?
8%1–3 years
What if a market shock and post-Credit-Suisse trust erosion drive asset outflows from Swiss wealth managers?
8%0–6 months
What if an acute shock triggers a disorderly franc surge beyond 9% despite SNB intervention?
8%1–3 years
What if Nordic and Swiss banks face simultaneous capital erosion in a regional recession?
8%3–10 years
What if Swiss net-zero commitments force rapid divestment from carbon-intensive lending?
8%6–18 months
What if a European bank takes the largest loss when a US family office defaults?
8%6–18 months
What if a CHF surge unwinds franc-funded carry trades into EM and high-yield assets?
7%1–3 years
What if Swiss pension funds mark down large domestic real-estate allocations?
7%1–3 years
What if Swiss house prices fall 15% as SNB rate normalization bites?
7%6–18 months
What if euro-area stress drives a safe-haven EUR/CHF slide toward 0.90?
7%6–18 months
What if renewed doubts over Swiss AT1 treatment shut the CoCo market again?
7%1–3 years
What if a concentration shock at post-merger UBS revives systemic concern over Swiss banks?
7%1–3 years
What if a reversal of negative-era duration leaves Swiss pension funds with large mark-to-market losses?
7%1–3 years
What if Swiss pension funds de-risk their large real-estate holdings into a property downturn?
7%6–18 months
What if a strong franc and euro-area recession squeeze Swiss small and mid-cap exporters into default?
7%1–3 years
What if Swiss real-estate funds face forced redemptions after portfolio writedowns?
7%1–3 years
What if a loss-and-credit double-hit forces a major Swiss reinsurer to raise capital?
6%1–3 years
What if Swiss real-estate companies face higher financing costs as CRE bonds reprice?
6%1–3 years
What if Switzerland's affordability tests disqualify buyers as mortgage rates rise?
6%0–6 months
What if a single AT1 writedown reprices the entire European contingent-convertible market?
6%1–3 years
What if mounting losses widen spreads on Japanese bank AT1 and subordinated debt?
6%3–10 years
What if a clustering of natural catastrophes overwhelms Swiss reinsurance balance sheets?
6%1–3 years
What if a rapid reversal of negative rates inflicts duration losses on Swiss life insurers?
6%1–3 years
What if Swiss cantonal banks face rising losses in a property and recession shock?
6%1–3 years
What if a severe shock pushes UBS toward resolution, testing Switzerland's too-big-to-fail regime?
6%6–18 months
What if Swiss banks' large dollar books drive the CHF/USD cross-currency basis sharply negative?
6%6–18 months
What if a CHF surge and post-Credit Suisse fragmentation choke franc liquidity?
6%6–18 months
What if rapid rotation of carry funding between yen, franc and euro whipsaws FX markets?
5%6–18 months
What if bank bond spreads gap wider after a peer's stress event?
5%6–18 months
What if a cyberattack disrupts trading and settlement at a Swiss systemic bank?