What if the SNB cuts policy rates back below zero to counter franc strength?
The SNB cuts policy rates back below zero to counter franc strength and sub-target inflation, squeezing Swiss bank net interest margins and reviving negative-rate distortions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The SNB cuts policy rates back below zero to counter franc strength and sub-target inflation, squeezing Swiss bank net interest margins and reviving negative-rate distortions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.23–+0.62% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.67–-0.11% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -15.77–+7.17% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.26–+3.19% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.16–+3.32% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–-0.01% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.04–+0.07% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.17–+0.22% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.24% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.35% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.11–+1.56% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.94–+0.61% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -9.81–+4.55% · other way +6.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.1% · 5d -10.8% | 100% | 4 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 77% | 22 | 0.52 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 20 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 23 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -5bp | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.4% | 61% | 23 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 22 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -8bp | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 22 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 53% | 30 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 22 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |