What if Mali ditches French CFA reserves for gold-backed plan?
Bamako announces a gold-backed regional settlement scheme to bypass the CFA franc, unsettling West African FX markets and boosting bullion demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bamako announces a gold-backed regional settlement scheme to bypass the CFA franc, unsettling West African FX markets and boosting bullion demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.9% hist -0.4–+6.91% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.55–+3.88% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.97–-0.35% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.06–+1.2% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.65–+0.12% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.67–+0.06% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.28–+0.01% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–-0.12% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.4–-0.14% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.82–+1.27% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.44–+9.0% · other way +21.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–+0.49% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.01–+0.37% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -6.0% | 73% | 22 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 33 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +3.1% | 64% | 29 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 26 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.6% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 19 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 32 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.20 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 61% | 25 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |