What if SNB and BoJ FX intervention reshapes haven flows?
Coordinated intervention to cap the franc and yen redirects safe-haven flows toward gold and Treasuries, subtly altering cross-asset hedging dynamics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Coordinated intervention to cap the franc and yen redirects safe-haven flows toward gold and Treasuries, subtly altering cross-asset hedging dynamics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -9.83–+2.32% |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.07–+0.88% |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.09–+0.74% |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.22% |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.18–+3.2% |
| 6 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.2–+0.83% |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.34–+0.36% |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.04% |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -9.3–+1.62% |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.02% |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -8.91–+2.13% |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+1.1% |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.34% |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.23–+0.56% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -0.7% | 78% | 18 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 72% | 18 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -4.6% | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.6% | 63% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -2bp | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -2bp | 58% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.3% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | · |