What if Congo grabs higher cobalt royalties from miners?
Kinshasa hiking cobalt royalties and demanding contract renegotiation is a supply/cost shock to Glencore and CMOC and the franc — not a US-China tariff event, so the current trade_tension roots and the resulting semis/Nasdaq cascade are mis-mapped. Tighter DRC supply supports cobalt prices while denting miner margins. Rhymes with the DRC's 2018 mining-code overhaul that raised cobalt royalties. China (CMOC) dominates DRC cobalt offtake, so the squeeze lands hardest on the China-controlled battery supply chain.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Kinshasa hikes mining royalties and demands contract renegotiation, hitting Glencore and CMOC margins and the franc. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.