What if an oil-and-gas price collapse splits the Nordic economies and strains bank books differently?
An oil-and-gas price collapse splits the Nordics — hammering petroleum-linked Norway while a strong franc and weak demand pressure others — straining bank books across the region differently.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An oil-and-gas price collapse splits the Nordics — hammering petroleum-linked Norway while a strong franc and weak demand pressure others — straining bank books across the region differently. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–+0.08% · other way -0.27% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.71–+0.49% · other way +25.14% (n=11) |
| 3 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.68–+0.2% · other way +0.42% (n=11) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.39% · other way -8.34% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.96–+0.58% · other way -1.3% (n=9) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.37–+0.21% · other way +6.87% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.24% · other way +0.46% (n=11) |
| 8 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.05% · other way -3.29% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.18–+0.22% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.98–+0.42% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.75–+4.7% · other way +28.77% (n=9) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.41–+1.1% · other way +7.52% (n=9) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.53% · other way +0.45% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.6% | 75% | 38 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.4% | 67% | 26 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -9.2% | 62% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.5% | 59% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.7% | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 38 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |