Space economy

Every scenario in which space economy is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.

8 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.

39%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reusable rockets cut launch 10x?
risk-on
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space militarization opens a defense-space cycle?
risk-off
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Military-satellite and launch demand lifts the space-defense cohort?
mixed
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Kessler debris cascade in orbit?
risk-off
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Asteroid and lunar metals narrative caps long-run scarcity fears?
mixed
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space-based solar beams power?
mixed
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space-based solar power demonstrator beams energy to the grid?
risk-on
17%▲ 3–10 years
What if Asteroid mining begins?
mixed