Browse by risk

The same MacroGuru library, sliced by the macro risk drivers behind every scenario. Pick a risk to read every future it moves — rising (▲) or falling (▼).

Risk appetite▲ 2,722▼ 6,0328,754Credit spreads▲ 3,670▼ 8104,480Financial conditions▲ 2,205▼ 1962,401EM currencies▲ 892▼ 1,2752,167Recession signal▲ 1,619▼ 151,634Geopolitical risk▲ 1,108▼ 2321,340Industrial demand▲ 759▼ 5451,304Real yields▲ 863▼ 135998Volatility (VIX)▲ 874▼ 99973Inflation surprise▲ 835▼ 18853Climate/crop supply▲ 700▼ 82782Consumer spending▲ 277▼ 493770Risk-parity deleveraging▲ 684▼ 22706Dollar/reserve confidence▲ 296▼ 404700Global growth▲ 443▼ 180623Oil supply risk▲ 474▼ 127601AI capex▲ 209▼ 370579Crypto confidence▲ 164▼ 407571Trade tension▲ 487▼ 64551Inflation expectations▲ 146▼ 384530Food inflation▲ 404▼ 126530Clean-energy abundance▲ 436▼ 56492FX carry appetite▲ 197▼ 278475Crypto liquidity▲ 137▼ 329466China growth▲ 64▼ 364428Growth surprise▲ 319▼ 96415Semiconductor supply risk▲ 280▼ 87367European energy▲ 281▼ 85366Mortgage rates▲ 316▼ 49365Oil demand▲ 57▼ 302359Bitcoin▲ 125▼ 233358Natural gas▲ 215▼ 114329US dollar (DXY)▲ 254▼ 51305Defense spending▲ 234▼ 55289Gold▲ 242▼ 35277Copper▲ 201▼ 73274Yield-curve slope▲ 209▼ 44253Fed policy path▲ 143▼ 71214Diesel▲ 104▼ 42146Robotics productivity▲ 124▼ 13137Job displacement▲ 96▼ 13109Wheat▲ 83▼ 23106Labor shortage▲ 95▼ 499Biotech breakthrough▲ 64▼ 2892Corn▲ 49▼ 3180AI breakthrough▲ 70▼ 777Gasoline▲ 47▼ 2572Fertilizer cost▲ 56▼ 1268China stimulus▲ 44▼ 1963Longevity▲ 57▼ 057Scientific breakthrough▲ 56▼ 056Biodiversity loss▲ 40▼ 1454Jet fuel▲ 32▼ 2052Labor surplus▲ 43▼ 346Silver▲ 26▼ 1036Pandemic shock▲ 30▼ 131Biosecurity risk▲ 10▼ 111Space economy▲ 7▼ 18Neural interface▲ 3▼ 03