What if Space militarization opens a defense-space cycle?
Great-power competition extends to orbital assets and missile defense, opening a long-cycle defense-and-space-economy investment theme.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Great-power competition extends to orbital assets and missile defense, opening a long-cycle defense-and-space-economy investment theme. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Space economy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.7% hist -0.01–+5.04% |
| 2 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.46–+1.01% |
| 3 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.2–+0.96% |
| 4 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.98–+0.99% |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.78–-0.29% |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.64–+0.05% |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.89–-0.02% |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–-0.03% |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.54% |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.53–-0.03% |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.51–+0.0% |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.96–+8.04% |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.72–+0.91% |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.94–+2.63% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 39 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.0% | 65% | 39 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 32 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 19 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 63% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +5bp | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |