What if Kessler debris cascade in orbit?
A collision cascade in low-Earth orbit (Kessler syndrome) renders key orbits unusable, disrupting comms, GPS and the space economy.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A collision cascade in low-Earth orbit (Kessler syndrome) renders key orbits unusable, disrupting comms, GPS and the space economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Space economy ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.25–+1.97% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.53–+0.27% |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -13.26–+3.14% |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.38–+6.07% |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–+0.03% |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.33% |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.29–+7.24% |
| 9 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.43–+0.43% |
| 10 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.32% |
| 11 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.91–+0.16% |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.82% |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.03% |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.3–+6.9% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.4% · 5d -5.5% | 92% | 12 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.3% | 79% | 28 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.1% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 72% | 21 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 27 | 0.23 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | · |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 28 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.7% | 55% | 27 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.07 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 28 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 27 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -4.5% | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 49% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.4% | 42% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |