What if Military-satellite and launch demand lifts the space-defense cohort?
Proliferated LEO constellations and responsive-launch demand lift SpaceX-adjacent suppliers, Rocket Lab and space-payload primes on a national-security space buildout.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Proliferated LEO constellations and responsive-launch demand lift SpaceX-adjacent suppliers, Rocket Lab and space-payload primes on a national-security space buildout. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Space economy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.11–+0.92% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.04–+0.6% · other way +3.32% (n=12) |
| 3 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.92–+1.0% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -8.52–+3.23% · other way -6.96% (n=9) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.13–+13.19% · other way -0.46% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.12–+0.33% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.69–+3.07% · other way -7.51% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.69–+4.02% · other way +9.01% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.15–+4.75% · other way -3.88% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.12–+0.6% · other way -0.95% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.15–+0.56% · other way -2.13% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -4.1% | 79% | 14 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 69% | 19 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 27 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 19 | 0.16 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +7bp | 58% | 27 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 27 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 27 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 27 | 0.07 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 21 | 0.05 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 27 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.7% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 23 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 22 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |