What if Reusable rockets cut launch 10x?
Fully-reusable heavy-lift rockets drop launch cost an order of magnitude, opening cheap orbital access and a fast-growing space economy.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Fully-reusable heavy-lift rockets drop launch cost an order of magnitude, opening cheap orbital access and a fast-growing space economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ · Space economy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.32–+0.91% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -13.77–+7.02% · other way -4.42% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -12.08–+19.66% · other way +11.19% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.81–+6.97% · other way -5.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +-0.0–+0.88% · other way +0.25% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.96–+9.48% · other way -1.09% (n=12) |
| 8 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.87–+1.96% · other way -3.05% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.37–+1.01% · other way +9.33% (n=12) |
| 10 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.56–+0.89% · other way -1.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.05–+1.9% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.47–+1.03% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.25% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -10.57–+11.58% · other way +6.65% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.0% | 81% | 10 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.9% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 81% | 10 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.9% · 5d -5.7% | 88% | 8 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 75% | 8 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.8% · 5d +0.9% | 67% | 10 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.8% | 67% | 10 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 10 | 0.29 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 10 | 0.17 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.9% | 57% | 10 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 10 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 10 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 10 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 43% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |