What if 0DTE options trigger a 7% intraday market swing?
A Friday 0DTE gamma cascade producing a 7% intraday swing is dealer-hedging mechanics, not a fundamental break — the move is violent into the close and largely retraces, so the trade is fading the extreme and harvesting the vol crush. The Aug-5-2024 VIX spike to ~65 intraday (yen-carry unwind amplified by short-gamma) is the analogue: a record intraday dislocation that round-tripped within days. Forward angle: record 0DTE volumes mean these air-pockets recur and self-heal; sell the panic, do not chase the gap.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Friday afternoon 0DTE options cascade triggers a 7% intraday S&P swing as dealers hedge violently into the close. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.4% hist -2.18–+2.1% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.88–-0.01% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -9.0–+1.0% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.06–+0.57% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.38–+1.61% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.7–+0.24% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.31–+0.11% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.7–+0.85% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–+0.47% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.79–+1.01% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.11% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.18–+1.89% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.18–-0.08% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on BTC/MRVL: up-prints come from carry-unwind rebounds and the 2017 BTC bull (+30%), not a same-session 0DTE gamma vacuum that hits every levered name indiscriminately.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -8.6% | 75% | 29 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -0.9% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.5% | 67% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d +4.6% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
0DTE volumes record-high; gamma cascades increasingly routine; 7% intraday swing plausible in 6mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.