What if the 10-year real yield climbs to 3%?
A push to a 3% 10y real yield is a pure discount-rate shock: long-duration tech and high-beta crypto de-rate hardest while risk-parity is forced to deleverage as bonds and equities sell together. This rhymes with Q4-2018 and the Oct-2023 real-yield surge toward ~2.5%, both of which cracked the Nasdaq. The trade is short duration-equity vs. the curve; gold is correctly a loser here on the real-rate channel, distinguishing it from a reserve-flight selloff.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained spike in real yields cracks risk-parity and long-duration equity valuations, forcing a global repricing of discount rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.29–-0.54% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.19–-0.46% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.33–-0.16% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -11.81–+1.24% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.46–+1.4% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -8.14–+2.13% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +11bp hist +2.4–+8.88% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist +2.35–+8.45% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.75–-0.21% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.51–-0.06% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–-0.09% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.53–+0.22% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.52–+0.66% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on MSTR: +69%/+51%/+65% analogues are 2024-25 BTC-bull regime prints, not real-yield shocks; a 3% real yield crushes the longest-duration equity proxy — history is pure regime contamination.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -7.6% | 75% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.7% | 68% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Real yields elevated but 3% sustained is a stretch in 6mo absent fresh inflation shock. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.