What if the 10-year real yield climbs to 3%?
A push to a 3% 10y real yield is a pure discount-rate shock: long-duration tech and high-beta crypto de-rate hardest while risk-parity is forced to deleverage as bonds and equities sell together. This rhymes with Q4-2018 and the Oct-2023 real-yield surge toward ~2.5%, both of which cracked the Nasdaq. The trade is short duration-equity vs. the curve; gold is correctly a loser here on the real-rate channel, distinguishing it from a reserve-flight selloff.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained spike in real yields cracks risk-parity and long-duration equity valuations, forcing a global repricing of discount rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.