What if China's A-share market crashes more than 20% despite state support?
A renewed A-share crash (>20% drawdown) overwhelms state-buying support as confidence collapses, triggering margin-call cascades reminiscent of the 2015 deleveraging spiral.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed A-share crash (>20% drawdown) overwhelms state-buying support as confidence collapses, triggering margin-call cascades reminiscent of the 2015 deleveraging spiral. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · China growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.06–-0.15% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.87–+1.96% · other way +2.35% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -16.45–+6.15% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.8–+0.27% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -12.53–+2.91% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.53–+0.37% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–-0.02% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.5–+0.9% · other way +4.72% (n=12) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.99–+0.67% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.11% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.02% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.88–+0.58% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.24% · other way -0.93% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.1% · 5d -18.8% | 83% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.7% · 5d -9.8% | 74% | 17 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -2.3% | 67% | 30 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d +5.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 28 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.4% | 62% | 26 | 0.21 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 26 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 30 | 0.17 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 26 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 26 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.6% | 56% | 21 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 25 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |