What if African health-worker brain drain widens care-system gaps?
Accelerated emigration of nurses and doctors from Sub-Saharan Africa to high-income systems hollows out domestic care capacity, raising biosecurity fragility and long-run growth drag in source economies.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Accelerated emigration of nurses and doctors from Sub-Saharan Africa to high-income systems hollows out domestic care capacity, raising biosecurity fragility and long-run growth drag in source economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.