Biosecurity risk

Every scenario in which biosecurity risk is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.

11 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.

28% 3–10 years
What if Antibiotic resistance outpaces R&D?
risk-off
24% 6–18 months
What if Bird-flu-driven dairy disruption spikes butter and milk prices?
risk-off
22% 1–3 years
What if AI lowers the bioweapon barrier?
risk-off
21% 1–3 years
What if Antimicrobial-resistance crisis revives antibiotic-developer economics?
risk-off
20% 0–6 months
What if Avian-flu egg-and-poultry shock spikes US protein prices?
risk-off
20% 1–3 years
What if African health-worker brain drain widens care-system gaps?
risk-off
19% 6–18 months
What if Avian-flu containment normalizes US egg & poultry prices?
mixed
18% 1–3 years
What if US healthcare-worker shortage from visa curbs strains care?
risk-off
15% 1–3 years
What if DIY-bio lowers weapon barrier?
risk-off
14% 1–3 years
What if Engineered pathogen escapes a lab?
risk-off
11% 3–10 years
What if Climate-driven dengue & malaria spread into new regions?
risk-off