Biosecurity risk
Every scenario in which biosecurity risk is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
11 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Antibiotic resistance outpaces R&D?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bird-flu-driven dairy disruption spikes butter and milk prices?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI lowers the bioweapon barrier?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Antimicrobial-resistance crisis revives antibiotic-developer economics?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Avian-flu egg-and-poultry shock spikes US protein prices?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if African health-worker brain drain widens care-system gaps?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Avian-flu containment normalizes US egg & poultry prices?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if US healthcare-worker shortage from visa curbs strains care?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if DIY-bio lowers weapon barrier?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Engineered pathogen escapes a lab?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if Climate-driven dengue & malaria spread into new regions?