What if Aging entrenches secular stagnation, r* sinks below 0.5%?
Demographic dissaving fears prove wrong as aging keeps desired saving above investment, pushing the equilibrium real rate below 0.5% and validating long-duration bonds and quality growth equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Demographic dissaving fears prove wrong as aging keeps desired saving above investment, pushing the equilibrium real rate below 0.5% and validating long-duration bonds and quality growth equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.18–+1.3% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.29–+9.47% · other way +14.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.02–+0.85% · other way -1.41% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -7.92–+1.88% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.28–+0.97% · other way -3.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.46–+0.8% · other way -4.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.47–+1.67% · other way +7.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.09–+0.37% · other way +3.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.15–+0.81% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.18–+1.08% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.76–+0.2% · other way +4.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.31–+1.26% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.9–+4.13% · other way +2.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 38 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -7.0% | 71% | 33 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -5.9% | 64% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.0% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -6.1% | 62% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |