What if AI agents cannibalize seat-based SaaS, software de-rates?
Agentic automation reduces the human seats software is priced on, undermining per-seat SaaS economics and forcing painful pricing-model transitions that de-rate the group.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Agentic automation reduces the human seats software is priced on, undermining per-seat SaaS economics and forcing painful pricing-model transitions that de-rate the group. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI breakthrough ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.73–+5.18% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -15.81–+1.29% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.45–+1.63% · other way +3.33% (n=11) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.16–+1.98% · other way -2.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.04–+6.77% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.37–+1.46% · other way +11.62% (n=7) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.52–+1.51% · other way +11.45% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.73–+2.92% · other way -0.58% (n=7) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.43–+0.85% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.16–+0.8% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.4–+3.37% · other way -0.94% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.33–+1.17% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.24–+0.88% · other way +3.83% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.4% · 5d -4.7% | 94% | 15 | 0.60 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 24 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.7% | 69% | 32 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 28 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.17 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +1.2% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.7% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.3% | 54% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +0.5% | 51% | 32 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |