What if AI agents commoditize search, click-based ad model erodes?
Agentic browsing completes tasks without ad clicks, structurally lowering the value of the sponsored-link model and forcing platforms toward unproven new monetization, pressuring ad earnings.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Agentic browsing completes tasks without ad clicks, structurally lowering the value of the sponsored-link model and forcing platforms toward unproven new monetization, pressuring ad earnings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI breakthrough ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.74–+2.68% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.17–+1.98% · other way -2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -19.88–+1.0% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.36–+4.02% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.89–+1.82% · other way +11.62% (n=7) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.12–+0.77% · other way +3.33% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.7–+5.11% · other way +7.92% (n=7) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.19% · other way +3.83% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.1–+0.5% · other way +11.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.65–+2.56% · other way -0.58% (n=7) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.62–+1.21% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.74–+0.47% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.4–+1.16% · other way -0.94% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.2% · 5d -7.6% | 100% | 14 | 0.66 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.4% | 74% | 12 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.8% | 75% | 29 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 23 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 30 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.4% | 57% | 30 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 56% | 29 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.3% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 29 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 29 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |