What if AI copilots become a durable enterprise-software line item?
AI assistants embed across productivity and developer suites and convert to paid, recurring seats, lifting average revenue per user and entrenching the platform software incumbents.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. AI assistants embed across productivity and developer suites and convert to paid, recurring seats, lifting average revenue per user and entrenching the platform software incumbents. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.