What if AI-driven hiring slowdown shows up first in tech and media payrolls?
Tech, media and information-sector payrolls stall as AI absorbs content, support and coding work, an early read on white-collar displacement; the sector-led hiring slowdown signals broader labor softening and weighs on risk.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tech, media and information-sector payrolls stall as AI absorbs content, support and coding work, an early read on white-collar displacement; the sector-led hiring slowdown signals broader labor softening and weighs on risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.