What if AI efficiency breakthrough collapses datacenter power forecasts?
A leap in model efficiency or chip performance-per-watt slashes projected datacenter electricity demand, unwinding the load-growth trade and hitting power, gas and grid-copper exposure.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A leap in model efficiency or chip performance-per-watt slashes projected datacenter electricity demand, unwinding the load-growth trade and hitting power, gas and grid-copper exposure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · AI breakthrough ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.2–+1.68% · other way -10.84% (n=5) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.17–+0.4% · other way -1.22% (n=5) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.94–+0.15% · other way -9.62% (n=5) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.04–+0.45% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.95–+0.79% · other way -12.07% (n=7) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.05–+0.48% · other way -2.58% (n=2) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.78–+0.59% · other way -14.8% (n=7) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.36% · other way -4.26% (n=5) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.66–+2.16% · other way -1.85% (n=5) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.6–+0.45% · other way +0.6% (n=5) |
| 11 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.24–+0.3% · other way -18.46% (n=5) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.02–+1.03% · other way +4.83% (n=2) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.47% · other way +0.01% (n=5) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.36–+0.68% · other way +6.77% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -7.8% | 69% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.1% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |