What if AI halves drug-discovery time?
AI-native discovery platforms cut preclinical timelines in half and push a wave of AI-originated drugs into Phase 1, compressing pharma R&D cost curves.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. AI-native discovery platforms cut preclinical timelines in half and push a wave of AI-originated drugs into Phase 1, compressing pharma R&D cost curves. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist -1.82–+5.9% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.75–+1.66% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.13–+2.05% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.13–+1.75% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.63–+1.69% · other way +2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.34–+2.02% · other way +3.97% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.05–+2.68% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.3–+1.92% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.96–+2.81% · other way +2.77% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.4–+1.77% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.13–+1.24% · other way -3.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -11.96–+5.08% · other way -12.47% (n=10) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.9–+15.01% · other way +7.83% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 14 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.6% · 5d -10.0% | 82% | 11 | 0.49 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +1.3% | 69% | 14 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.4% | 74% | 14 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 13 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.7% · 5d +0.6% | 62% | 14 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 14 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 13 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +1.3% | 57% | 14 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d -3bp ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |